Ireland could collect an extra €12.4 billion in corporation tax under the proposed 15% global minimum rate.
That’s according to figures published today by the EU Tax Observatory, an independent think-tank based in Paris that receives funding from the EU.
Based on OECD tax figures for 2016 and 2017, the Observatory estimates that the rule change would have seen Ireland’s corporate tax take increase by €7.7 billion or 91% in 2016 and €12.4 billion or 137% in 2017.
Luxembourg would have seen its corporate tax take increase by 108% in 2016 and 182% in 2017.
The EU average increase would have been 15% in 2016 and 18% in 2017.
The OECD average would be an increase of 7% in 2016 and 12% in 2017.
The Observatory’s report finds the EU-27 would see its combined corporate tax revenue increase by a quarter or €83 billion.
The US could benefit to the tune of €57 billion a year.
Developing countries would benefit less with an increase of €6 billion for China, €4 billion for South Africa and €1.5 billion for Brazil.
The report finds developing and low-income countries will benefit less as most multinationals are headquartered in high-income countries.
If ‘carve-outs’ are applied, which are tax allowances for expenditure on payroll and investment in factory sites and other assets in countries, then the potential revenue in the EU-27 would be reduced to around €64 billion.
Over ten years, as the value of the ‘carve-outs’ decline, the potential extra revenue could be reduced by 14%.